[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162341
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT FEB 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N8W 4N23W 4N40W 1N52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS
BETWEEN 8W-24W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS S OF 5N BETWEEN 42W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

MEXICO/GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ROTATING EWD FROM NEW MEXICO TO
W TEXAS AND IS PARTIALLY CUT-OFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES LOCATED NEAR THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM IS MOVING E ACROSS E/CENTRAL TEXAS
AND NE MEXICO AND IS SPARKING SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN
DALLAS AND SAN ANTONIO. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT ALL
THAT COLD ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE MEXICAN PART OF THE BOUNDARY...WHERE IT IS IN THE LOWER 90S
F IN SALTILLO...TORREON...AND MONTERREY...AND THE LOWER TO MID
60S F JUST TO THE N IN MONCLOVA AND CHIHUAHUA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST OVER THE NW
GULF WATERS TONIGHT THEN PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN THE MEANTIME...WEAK
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS IN CONTROL OVER THE GULF AND
IS PRODUCING E/SE SURFACE WINDS WITH MAINLY FAIR WEATHER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS CENTERED SW OF JAMAICA NEAR 16N78W
WITH THE MID-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AND THIS IS RESULTING IN MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. THE STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE AND PROBABLY THE AREA WITH
THE LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS IS LOCATED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN
AND WINDWARD ISLANDS...WITH UPPER MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASING
FARTHER TO THE W. STREAMS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS ARE EMANATING FROM
THE AREA S OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF THE FAR
W CARIBBEAN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SURFACE HIGH
PRES LOCATED OVER THE W ATLC IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST OCCURRING BETWEEN 68W
AND 78W OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST.

WEST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE ROARING EWD ACROSS THE W ATLC WATERS THEN
DIVE SE AND SWD INTO A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N45W TO 10N60W.
MAXIMUM WINDS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET ARE ABOUT 50 KT
EXTENDING E OF FLORIDA BUT THERE IS VERY LITTLE ASSOCIATED HIGH
CLOUDINESS WITH THE FLOW. A DYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOTED IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM 27N50W TO 26N60W THEN TO 28N73W
WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS LIE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY BUT OVERALL THERE
IS LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY LIES WITHIN
A SURFACE RIDGE WITH A 1022 MB HIGH LOCATED JUST SE OF BERMUDA
NEAR 31N62W.

EAST ATLANTIC...
BROAD SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN...FEEDING INTO A COMPLEX UPPER LOW
LOCATED BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND THE AZORES. A 1000 MB
OCCLUDED LOW IS LOCATED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N23W AND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM 32N13W TO
24N20W TO 21N30W. THERE ARE TWO WIND MAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET ON THE SE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. ONE CORE ROTATES
ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 110 KT WHILE THE
SECOND LIES JUST N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS INTO WESTERN SAHARA
WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 80-85 KT. A STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS RUNS
ALONG THE SECOND JET BEGINNING NEAR 10N45W IN THE TROPICS AND
EXTENDING TOWARDS NORTHERN MAURITANIA AND WESTERN SAHARA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING E OF THE OCCLUDED LOW
N OF 30N BETWEEN CENTRAL MOROCCO AND 20W.

$$
BERG


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