[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT FEB 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 2N32W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR
3S42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 12W-27W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
EQUATOR S OF AFRICA BETWEEN 3W-10W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RETURN FLOW OF MOIST CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE MARINE AIR AROUND A
BROAD HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 30N/31N IS FIRMLY ESTABLISHED. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS THE SE CONUS IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS INLAND. QUIKSCAT THIS
MORNING SHOWED SE WINDS TO 25 KT W OF 90W. LIGHTER NE TO E WINDS
DOMINATE THE E GULF. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA COVERS THE AREA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING OVER CUBA AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING FROM S MEXICO
ACROSS THE GULF IS PRODUCING A PLUME OF TRANSVERSE HIGH CLOUDS.
HIGH PRES OVER THE W ATLC COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER
NE MEXICO WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SLY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
GULF THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W GULF
TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION COURTESY
OF THE HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 30N/31N. ANIMATED VISUAL IMAGERY
SHOWS PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...AFFECTING FROM THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS TO
HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY A RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTH
OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS THAT IS DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE E PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO WESTERN CUBA. MODERATE
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN...
LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. HIGH PRES N
OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS MOST OF
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N48W TO 27N55W DIFFUSE
TO 27N62W. THIS FRONT IS RAPIDLY LOSING ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AS THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ALOFT. A BROAD HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS
ALONG 30N/31N W OF 55W. A LARGE DEEP LAYER LOW NEAR 31N25W HAS
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE AREA N OF 20N E OF 40W. THIS 1000
MB LOW HAS AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPING COMPLETELY AROUND IT. THE
LOW IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS N OF 30N
EAST OF 25W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED BY STRONG
SWLY UPPER WINDS FROM N SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC
TO THE COAST OF AFRICA OVER MAURITANIA AND WESTERN SAHARA.

$$
MUNDELL



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