[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161147
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT FEB 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 3N25W EQUATOR AT 34W INTO NE
BRAZIL. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 14W-30W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N EAST OF 14W TO THE AFRICAN COAST.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RETURN SURFACE FLOW AROUND THE 1025 MB HIGH LOCATED JUST SOUTH
OF BERMUDA IS FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS MOIST AND UNSTABLE ONSHORE FLOW PAIRED WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER E TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. AN ASCAT PASS
FROM AROUND 0400 UTC SHOWED SELY WINDS OF 15-25 KT ACROSS THE W
GULF WHILE LIGHTER NE TO E WINDS DOMINATE THE E GULF. AS OF
09Z...A 1024 MB BUBBLE HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA
BORDER. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
COVERS THE AREA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING OVER CUBA AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING FROM THE E
PACIFIC ACROSS S MEXICO TO OVER THE GULF BUT IS ONLY PRODUCING A
PLUME OF TRANSVERSE HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH PRES OVER THE W ATLC
COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER NE MEXICO WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING SLY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF TODAY. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE REGION
COURTESY OF THE 1025 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
BERMUDAS. THESE WINDS ARE USHERING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SOME OF
THEM ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING FROM THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS TO
HISPANIOLA. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR REVEALS SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE UK/US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO.
THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTH
OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS THAT IS DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE E PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND
WESTERN CUBA. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND
IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HIGH PRES N OF
THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N48W THEN CONTINUES SW TO
NEAR 26N61W. AT THIS POINT...A DYING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
WWD TO THE NW BAHAMAS. THE ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS THROUGH 32N48W SW INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TO 20N56W. A
1025 MB HIGH IS BEHIND THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF BERMUDA WITH A
RIDGE ENVELOPING THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLC. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
IN THE E ATLC NEAR 31N25W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE
AREA N OF 20N E OF 40W. A SURFACE 998 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
29N27W WITH THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING N AND THE
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE E ATLC NEAR 31N17W. THIS FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS THEN CONTINUES SW TO 20N26W. THE
SURFACE LOW IS PRODUCING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE E ATLC N
OF 25N EAST OF 25W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW CENTER. ABUNDANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEING TRANSPORTED BY STRONG
SWLY UPPER WINDS FROM N SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC
TO THE COAST OF AFRICA OVER MAURITANIA AND WESTERN SAHARA.

$$
GR






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