[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171135
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN FEB 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 3N20W 4N30W EQUATOR AT 48W INTO
NE BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 1N-7N EAST OF 25W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
180 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 35W-45W. SIMILAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
ALONG 50W FROM 2N-5N.

...DISCUSSION...

MEXICO/GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE NW
CORNER OF THE GULF BUT MAINLY N OF 27N BETWEEN 91W-95W. THE
MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR FROM THE SE U.S SHOWS A STRONG LINE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI
AND LOUISIANA BORDER. AS OF 09Z...THE COLD FRONT TRAILS ACROSS
SE LOUISIANA AND THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF TO THE MEXICAN COAST
JUST N OF TAMPICO. A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING NEWD
OVER PARTS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA SUPPORTS THE FRONT. THIS
FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO
THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY MON...AND FROM SOUTH FLORIDA
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY EARLY TUE. A 1006 MB LOW HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE GULF AND IS NEAR 21N96W.
MODERATE TO STRONG SLY WINDS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AN ASCAT
PASS FROM 0340 UTC INDICATED WIND SPEED OF 15-25 KT OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF. LIGHT TO MODERATE NLY WINDS ARE BLOWING BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT THIS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE NE AND SLIGHTLY
INCREASE ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDS IN.
WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS IN CONTROL OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF AND IS PRODUCING E/SE SURFACE WINDS WITH
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS CENTERED SW OF JAMAICA NEAR 16N78W
WITH THE MID-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED JUST N OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...AND THIS IS RESULTING IN MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE IS LOCATED OVER
THE SE CARIBBEAN AND WINDWARD ISLANDS...WITH UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASING FARTHER TO THE W. STRONG SLY WINDS
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE ARE ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC ACROSS SOUTH MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA/CHANNEL INTO WESTERN CUBA AND THE SE PORTION OF THE
GULF. AS USUAL...POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING BETWEEN THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
HISPANIOLA. FRAGMENTS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER
HONDURAS AND PARTS OF NICARAGUA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF THE EPAC ITCZ. SURFACE HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE W ATLC IS
PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE
STRONGEST OCCURRING JUST OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST.

WEST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS N COVERING THE W
ATLC WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 31N38W TO 10N52W.
MAXIMUM WINDS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET ARE ABOUT 70 KT
EXTENDING E OF FLORIDA BUT THERE IS VERY LITTLE ASSOCIATED HIGH
CLOUDINESS WITH THE FLOW. A DYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PERSISTS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 32N43W TO 27N53W. A SFC
TROUGH...REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM
29N72W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS LIE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE TROUGH...BUT OVERALL THERE IS
LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY LIES WITHIN A
SURFACE RIDGE WITH A 1022 MB HIGH LOCATED JUST SE OF BERMUDA
NEAR 30N64W. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ABSORBED BY A STRONGER HIGH
PRES EXITING NOW NEW ENGLAND.

EAST ATLANTIC...
BROAD SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN...FEEDING INTO A COMPLEX UPPER LOW
LOCATED NE OF THE AZORES. A 1003 MB OCCLUDED LOW IS LOCATED NEAR
MIDWAY BETWEEN THE MADEIRA AND THE AZORES ISLANDS. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM 31N12W CROSSING
JUST E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO OVER THE WESTERN SAHARAN COAST.
THERE ARE TWO WIND MAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET ON
THE SE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. ONE CORE ROTATES BETWEEN THE CANARY
AND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 110 KT WHILE THE
SECOND LIES JUST N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS INTO WESTERN SAHARA
WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 90 KT. A STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS RUNS ALONG
THE SECOND JET BEGINNING NEAR 10N40W IN THE TROPICS AND
EXTENDING TOWARDS NORTHERN MAURITANIA AND WESTERN SAHARA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING E OF THE OCCLUDED
LOW. A SFC TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 31N23W TO 22N32W WITHIN THE
CIRCULATION OF THE OCCLUDED LOW.

$$
GR






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