[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121157
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE FEB 12 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
6N10W 2N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 26W...TO 1S30W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S47W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN
AND THE COASTS OF BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST 60W...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
SOUTHWARD TO BERMUDA TO THE AREA JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS.
ONE ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 30N55W TO 28N60W 25N70W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 25N70W
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO
WESTERN CUBA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LINE PASSING THROUGH 32N52W 28N60W 26N70W 25N75W...AND THEN
FROM 23N TO 28N WEST OF 75W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. A SECOND FRONT FOLLOWS THE FIRST
ONE...PASSING THROUGH 31N59W TO 28N70W TO 28N78W. A DISTINCT
CLOUD BOUNDARY IN SATELLITE IMAGERY IDENTIFIES THIS FRONT.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW IS IN THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. IT IS SPREADING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN FRONT OF
IT FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN 80W
AND 92W. THIS IS THE SAME SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS IN CENTRAL
MEXICO AT LEAST 24 HOURS AGO. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN CROSSES CENTRAL AMERICA...STAYING SOUTH OF 18N...AND
CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY TO THE EAST. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 72W.
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS COVERED BY
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RELATED CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADEWIND WIND FLOW. NO ONE WELL-DEFINED AREA
OF PRECIPITATION IS NOTED. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 22N81W TO
18N83W. LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE TROUGH
WITH NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 41N35W 34N38W 36N41W 12N41W.
A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN BETWEEN THE
MADEIRAS ISLANDS AND THE AZORES. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS
CYCLONIC CENTER TO JUST WEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 20N23W
TO 12N31W ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N15W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 23N20W. NO DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. A `1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 29N39W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 10N
BETWEEN 20W AND THE FIRST COLD FRONT 30N55W 25N70W.

$$
MT





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