[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE FEB 12 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N20W 1N40W EQ50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N
BETWEEN 15W-24W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
EQ-4N BETWEEN 24W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  SELY TO SLY SURFACE FLOW COVERS THE
ENTIRE GULF WITH STRONGEST WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE OVER THE SE
GULF AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.  A COLD FRONT WITH SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING IS INLAND
OVER E TEXAS ABOUT 90 NM NW OF HOUSTON MOVING SE.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 26N89W.  AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E
OF THE CENTER IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 82W-88W.  EXPECT
THIS CONVECTION TO MOVE TO E OVER FLORIDA AND THE W ATLANTIC
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE COLD FRONT OVER TEXAS
TO EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN 24 HOURS WITH
CONVECTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS...
HISPANIOLA...AND E CUBA.  SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF
PANAMA W OF 81W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT CONTINUED
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 30N57W
28N64W 28N70W 30N77W.  NO CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FRONT.  THE
ORIGINAL COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
32N50W TO 26N63W.  A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES SW TO THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 25N75W.  A DISSIPATING WARM FRONT CONTINUES FURTHER
W TO S FLORIDA NEAR 25N81W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE FRONTS.  A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 28N50W.  ANOTHER 1026 MB HIGH IS FURTHER E AT
30N40W.  THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC AND
THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 32N14W 29N14W 26N20W 25N24W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-70W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 10N AND E OF 30W.  EXPECT...THE REINFORCING COLD
FRONT TO MERGE WITH THE ORIGINAL COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.  ALSO EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO TRINIDAD DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA


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