[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 120604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE FEB 12 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
6N10W 2N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 26W...TO 1S30W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 30W...AND SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 30W
AND THE COASTS OF BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST 60W...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
SOUTHWARD TO BERMUDA TO THE AREA JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS.
ONE ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 29N60W 24N70W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR
22N76W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA
TO 21N80W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
TO 20N85W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE PASSING
THROUGH 32N54W 29N60W 26N68W 25N75W...AND THEN FROM 22N TO
26N WEST OF 75W. A SECOND FRONT FOLLOWS THE FIRST ONE...
PASSING THROUGH 32N60W TO 29N70W TO 28N76W. A DISTINCT CLOUD
BOUNDARY IN SATELLITE IMAGERY IDENTIFIES THIS FRONT. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW IS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT IS SPREADING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN FRONT
OF IT FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 85W AND 92W. THIS IS THE SAME
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS IN CENTRAL MEXICO AT LEAST 16 HOURS
AGO. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN CROSSES CENTRAL AMERICA...STAYING SOUTH OF 17N...AND
CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY TO THE EAST. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 72W. THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS COVERED BY
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RELATED CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADEWIND WIND FLOW. NO ONE WELL-DEFINED AREA
OF PRECIPITATION IS NOTED...SUCH AS THOSE AREAS OF SHOWERS
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 42N34W 35N38W 32N42W 24N49W
19N50W 10N52W. A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS IN BETWEEN THE MADEIRAS ISLANDS AND AZORES. A TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THIS CYCLONIC CENTER TO JUST WEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO
21N24W ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

$$
MT




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