[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN FEB 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N19W 1N30W 1N41W CROSSING
THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 7N TO THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 26W-34W AND S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 18W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE FAR E US MOVING INTO THE NW
ATLC WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA TO
GEORGIA COAST. THE STRONGEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS INTO
THE W ATLC W OF BERMUDA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH
THE FLORIDA STRAITS ALONG 25N80W TO ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA TO
23N87W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL S OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. THE GULF ITSELF IS DOMINATED BY UPPER WSW FLOW DRAWING
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO OVER THE W GULF GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N93W
OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO TO 24N97W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS
CLEAR THIS EVENING. HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE IS BUILDING S OVER THE
GULF AND WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE GULF UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA ON TUE NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA TO 75W WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF
75W EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
ATLC COUPLED WITH THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS
PRODUCING A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN
AND IS GENERATING MODERATE/STRONG SURFACE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS W OF 85W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS GENERATING SIMILAR
ACTIVITY N OF 21N W OF 81W TO OVER CUBA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. OTHERWISE THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR UPPER AIR THUS LIMITING ANY OTHER
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE TRADE WINDS ARE
USHERING IN SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW
LEVEL SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE FAR E US AND NW ATLC EXTENDS A
DISSIPATING FRONT E OF BERMUDA THROUGH 32N63W TO 30N66W AND A
SECOND STRONGER FRONT W OF BERMUDA THROUGH 32N68W TO THE N
BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 26N77W CONTINUING AS A SURFACE TROUGH
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BEYOND
25N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS
FRONT/TROUGH. AN UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE S CENTRAL ATLC/W
TROPICAL ATLC COVERING THE AREA FROM 6N-27N BETWEEN 50W-75W
INCLUDING THE E CARIBBEAN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 25N73W ACROSS
THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO E CUBA NEAR GUANTANAMO GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A
LARGE UPPER LOW IS N OF THE AZORES EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH S
TO 21N E OF 38W. A SECOND WEAKER UPPER LOW IS NE OF MADEIRA
ISLANDS EXTENDING S TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. A WEAKENING 1012 MB
SURFACE LOW REMAINS IN THE REGION OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
NEAR 30N17W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S OFF THE COAST OF
WESTERN SAHARA TO 25N15W BUT DUE TO DRY AIR NO SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS OBSERVED. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 27N50W. A JETSTREAM WITH
WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT IS S OF THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH WITHIN
125/150 NM OF LINE FROM 14N32W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA NEAR
18N16W.

$$
WALLACE


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