[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN FEB 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N20W 1N30W EQUATOR AT 45W
INTO NE BRAZIL. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
100 NM NORTH OF BETWEEN 27W-32W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 16W-19W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A VORT MAX CENTERED ABOUT 180 NM
OF CAPE HATTERAS NEAR 35N72W SW TO A BASE OVER N FLORIDA AND
THE ADJACENT NE GULF. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
IS SWEEPING OFF THE SE COAST AND EXTENDS WWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTH GULF STATES/WATERS. THE TROUGH IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A
RAPIDLY MOVING COLD FRONT THAT LIES OVER THE W ATLC ALONG 32N71W
28N75W 27N78W. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE A WEAKENING
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS THE
NW BAHAMAS...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SE PORTION OF THE
GULF...VERY CLOSE TO WESTERN CUBA. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG THE FRONTAL TROUGH BETWEEN
SOUTH FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA. PART OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
AFFECTING THE N COAST OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE CITY OF HAVANA.
STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS AND N-CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A COLD AIRMASS.
AS THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO GRIP THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF/STATE
OF FLORIDA EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY. BRISK NE TO E WINDS WILL BLOW...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF...WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE REST OF TODAY. A SFC
TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO AND A RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA IS ENHANCING THIS ACTIVITY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM
PANAMA TO HISPANIOLA AND CONTINUES NEWD INTO THE SUBTROPICAL
ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS IS UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE
AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE NE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR GUADELOUPE WWD
JUST TO THE S OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES MOST OF THE BASIN WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO
STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS SUBSIDENCE IS LIMITING ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL
CLUSTER OF ACTIVITY IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR ROATAN ISLAND.
SURFACE RIDGE N OF AREA COUPLED WITH THE COLOMBIAN LOW IS
PRODUCING A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
RESULTING IN MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA. A 1048 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED 25-30 KT WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS. DOPPLER
RADAR REVEALS SOME OF THIS SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE UK/US
VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO NE PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN
METROPOLITAN AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IS PROVIDING SOME SUPPORT FOR
A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N71W THEN CONTINUES SW
TO 27N78W. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO OVERTAKE THE FRONTAL TROUGH
THAT IS CURRENTLY WITHIN AROUND 80 NM AHEAD OF IT. MOST OF THE
W-CENTRAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN EXPANSIVE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE
AND EMBEDDED ANTICYCLONE NEAR 25N46W AT 500 MB. THE SURFACE
RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 28N50W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE FAR E ATLC SUPPORTS A 1012 MB LOW LOCATED JUST N
OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N16W. A TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN
SAHARA TO 21N19W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AROUND THE LOW. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 4N/5N TO 40W AND A WEAKENING
JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT IS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE FROM 15N30W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA ACROSS MAURITANIA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF TRANSVERSE HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS JET.

$$
GR/HC







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