[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 110615
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN FEB 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
6N11W 2N20W 1N30W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 40W...CURVING NORTHWARD
TO 1N54W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 9N13W 6N18W 4N22W 3N28W...FROM 2S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 17W
AND 22W...FROM 2S TO 2N BETWEEN 29W AND 40W...AND SOUTH OF 4N
WEST OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH
MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 96W AND 105W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE
WEST OF 90W AND DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS EAST OF 90W. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT DURING THE LAST 24 TO 36 HOURS. A REMNANT TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN CUBA ALONG 80W TO WESTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM THE
EASTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF GUATEMALA AND THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W TO THE
COAST OF CUBA ALONG 80W TO WESTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM THE EASTERN
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
GUATEMALA AND THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. OTHER ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALSO ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS/EASTERN HONDURAS/
SOUTHERN BELIZE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS SOUTH OF 13N/14N
WEST OF 70W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 70W DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
A NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF LOW
CLOUDS...MOST NOTABLY SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WHOSE SOUTHERNMOST POINT APPEARS TO BE IN CENTRAL
GEORGIA. THIS TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES JUST TO THE RIGHT OF BERMUDA TO 28N70W TO 25N76W IN THE
BAHAMAS. SCATTERED TO BROKEKN LOW CLOUDS ARE SOUTH OF 26N WEST
OF 82W. A LINE OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MARKS THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS NEAR 22N63W. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS
NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 35W AND 65W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REACHES 33N24W TO 18N26W.

SURFACE 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE
A REMNANT 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N16W IN BETWEEN
THE MADEIRAS ISLANDS AND THE CANARY ISLANDS.


 CENTERCATO
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE FAR E US AND NW ATLC EXTENDS A
DISSIPATING FRONT E OF BERMUDA THROUGH 32N63W TO 30N66W AND A
SECOND STRONGER FRONT W OF BERMUDA THROUGH 32N68W TO THE N
BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 26N77W CONTINUING AS A SURFACE TROUGH
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BEYOND
25N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS
FRONT/TROUGH. AN UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE S CENTRAL ATLC/W
TROPICAL ATLC COVERING THE AREA FROM 6N-27N BETWEEN 50W-75W
INCLUDING THE E CARIBBEAN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 25N73W ACROSS
THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO E CUBA NEAR GUANTANAMO GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A
LARGE UPPER LOW IS N OF THE AZORES EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH S
TO 21N E OF 38W. A SECOND WEAKER UPPER LOW IS NE OF MADEIRA
ISLANDS EXTENDING S TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. A WEAKENING 1012 MB
SURFACE LOW REMAINS IN THE REGION OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
NEAR 30N17W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S OFF THE COAST OF
WESTERN SAHARA TO 25N15W BUT DUE TO DRY AIR NO SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS OBSERVED. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 27N50W. A JETSTREAM WITH
WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT IS S OF THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH WITHIN
125/150 NM OF LINE FROM 14N32W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA NEAR
18N16W.

$$
MT



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