[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 072257
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU FEB 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2230 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 4N15W 4N25W 2N37W 2N44W
EQUATOR AT 49W INTO NE BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF AXIS BETWEEN 11W-19W...WITHIN 90 NM N OF
AXIS BETWEEN 27W-29W...AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 35W
AND 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE LOW PRES 1015 MB CENTERED NEAR 26N84W LIFTING OUT TO THE
NE THROUGH THE BIG BEND AREA OF NORTH FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRES SW TO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. A
WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRES NE THROUGH NORTH FLORIDA.
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE WHERE THE FRONT INTERSECTS
THE WARMER WATERS OF THE LOOP CURRENT NEAR 15N87W. THE FRONT
WILL SHIFT FURTHER EWD INTO NORTH FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY AS
UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THEN LIFTS OUT TO THE NE. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FRONT WILL STALL FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THEN
DISSIPATES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL THROUGH FRI AS
THE UPPER SHORT LIFTS OUT. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATE
TO FRESH EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN...THE MAIN DRIVER REMAINS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA...RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRES. ALOFT...WEAK DIVERGENCE BETWEEN AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND A MODEST UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN
HONDURAS AND JAMAICA. THE CONVERGENCE OF THE STRONGER EASTERLY
WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...ALONG WITH THIS
WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT...ARE RESULTING IN CLUSTER OF WEAK
CONVECTION SW OF GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND. THIS WILL DIMINISH AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER SHORT WAVE OVER THE
MAINLAND U.S. NO LET UP IN THE STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRES REMAINS
ANCHORED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MAIN FEATURE REMAINS A BROAD 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR 30N55W...MAINTAINING A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TRADES
GENERALLY SOUTH OF 20N W OF 27N. FURTHER EAST...UPPER TROUGH
IS DIGGING EASTWARD S OF THE AZORES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED 1011 MB
SURFACE LOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CANARIES. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST TO 26N25W THEN TO NEAR
24N30N. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE UPPER TROUGH IS PUSHING INTO THE AFRICAN COAST BETWEEN
SENEGAL TO MOROCCO.

$$
CHRISTENSEN




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