[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081157
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC

...THE ITCZ...

7N11W 4N20W 3N30W 2N40W 2N45W...GOING JUST SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 52W IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 3N9W 2N13W 3N15W 2N17W...AND
FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 12W AND 14W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 4N18W 3N30W 3N39W 3N52W.

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 75W...

A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH
31N78W TO A TRANSIENT 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N84W
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND
EVENTUALLY TO THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
SOUTH OF 20N. THIS FRONT GOES TO A 1008 MB TRANSIENT LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 17N96W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO TO 22N103W. A 1019 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPED NEAR 27N92W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM TO
120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 31N77W TO 29N80W
25N86W 21N92W 18N94W. A SECOND COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO SOUTH TEXAS. THIS FRONT IS
IDENTIFIED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BY A WELL-DEFINED ROPE CLOUD.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM THE LAST 24 HOURS APPEARS
TO HAVE DISAPPEARED. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
AREA BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. SHOWERS ARE IN A LINE FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN HONDURAS BETWEEN 82W AND 84W. SOME HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING FROM SOUTH AMERICA NORTHWARD TO 15N...
CURVING TO THE NORTHEAST A BIT. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW EAST OF JAMAICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD AND LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA WEST OF 40W COURTESY OF THE MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THAT IS CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. A DEEP LAYER
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 29N22W...WITH A TROUGH
TRAILING FROM THE CENTER TO 20N24W. THE MASSIVE RIDGE THAT
STARTED OVER MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES OF THE
U.S.A. DURING THE LAST 24 TO 48 HOURS FINALLY HAS MADE IT
TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 28N50W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA NORTH
OF 10N WEST OF 30W BETWEEN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP
LAYER TROUGH/SURFACE FRONT AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO STATIONARY FRONT.

$$
MT

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