[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU FEB 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 4N25W 2N35W 2N44W EQUATOR AT
50W INTO NE BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120-150 NM SOUTH OF AXIS BETWEEN 17W-25W...AND WITHIN 60 NM N OF
AXIS BETWEEN 26W-31W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND FROM
2N-5N WEST OF 35W TO THE BRAZILIAN COAST. CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER SW AFRICA NEAR 6N6W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF HAS BECAME STATIONARY. AS OF
15Z...THIS SYSTEM TRAILS ACROSS N FLORIDA AND THE CENTRAL GULF
INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A BROKEN WIDE BAND OF MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR 26N86W. THE FRONTAL ZONE IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY INVADE THE AREA DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS
ACROSS THE GULF AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. MAINLY LIGHT NELY WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND NORTHERN MEXICO GIVING MOST
OF THE AREA STRONG SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. A JETSTREAM WITH CORE
WINDS OF 90 TO 120 KT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE W ATLC. A 1026 MB SFC HIGH
PERSISTS OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLC ENVELOPING THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF WITH SLY RETURN
FLOW AND WARM TEMPERATURES. THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MORE OF THE SAME...SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA CONTROLS THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION WITH FRESH TRADE WINDS AND
SHALLOW PATCHES OF MOISTURE...MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NEAR CABO GRACIAS A
DIOS IN NICARAGUA AND OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND REGIONAL
WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH IN CUBA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE ALSO EVIDENT INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS AS
WELL AS OVER HISPANIOLA. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1030 UTC
INDICATED ELY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AS USUAL JUST OFFSHORE THE COLOMBIAN
COAST. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRES OVER
THE W-CENTRAL ATLC KEEPS A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...A 1026 MB HIGH SITUATED SE OF BERMUDA
NEAR 2852W DOMINATES THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLC. THIS SFC HIGH IS
PRODUCING A SWATH OF MODERATE TO STRONG ELY WINDS ACROSS THE N
TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A COLD FRONT CLIPS THE
FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA THEN CONTINUES SW ACROSS N CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
AREA NEAR 31N26W THEN CONTINUES SW TO 24N35W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N.

A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT COVERS THE ENTIRE REGION. A
JET-STREAM BRANCH WITH CORE WINDS OF 90-110 KT IS OBSERVED OVER
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEEN ADVECTED BY
THIS JET FROM N SOUTH AMERICA ALL THE WAY NE TO THE AFRICAN
COAST CROSSING THROUGH THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
GR


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