[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071155
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 7 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC

...THE ITCZ...

6N11W 4N20W 3N30W 3N40W...GOING TO 1S52W INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN ONE CELL ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE IVORY COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN
20W AND 24W...AND FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 38W AND 40W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 8N EAST OF 60W. UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 180 NM TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
9N44W 14N31W BEYOND 21N18W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THE AREA FROM FAR WEST TEXAS/
WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BEYOND KANSAS. UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO FROM
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS FLOW MOVES FROM MEXICO...
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF TEXAS...THROUGH LOUISIANA AND
BEYOND MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA NORTHEASTWARD. THIS UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS COVERED BY UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THAT IS CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE
NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 89W...AND ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. PRECIPITATION IS
DISSIPATING FROM NORTHERN GUATEMALA INTO MEXICO TO THE EAST OF
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
JUST WEST OF TAMPA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO IN A ROPE-CLOUD
THAT MARKS THE FRONT BETWEEN THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE TO THE
SOUTH OF THIS CYCLONIC CENTER...STRETCHING FROM EASTERN HONDURAS
AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA FROM 13N TO 21N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W.
HIGH LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PUSHING SOME CLOUDS NORTHWARD...
IN THE AREA FROM COLOMBIA TO 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. LOW CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS EAST OF 80W IN THE SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL
TRADE WIND FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD AND LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA WEST OF 40W COURTESY OF THE MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THAT IS CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH THE AREA ALONG THE LINE THROUGH 32N30W
TO 19N33W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N28W TO 22N38W. CLOUDS AND MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 22N
BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 23W AND 30W.

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net