[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070613 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU FEB 7 2008

COR FOR DAY OF WEEK AND DATE

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC

...THE ITCZ...

6N10W 4N20W 3N30W 4N40W...GOING TO THE EQUATOR AT 52W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 4N
BETWEEN 18W AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE ITCZ...AND FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W IN NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL...SURINAME...AND FRENCH GUIANA. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N40W 13N31W BEYOND 18N18W...
AND SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.


...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THE AREA FROM FAR WEST TEXAS
THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO COLORADO. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO FROM
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS FLOW MOVES FROM MEXICO...
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF TEXAS...THROUGH LOUISIANA
AND BEYOND MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA NORTHEASTWARD. THIS UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS COVERED BY
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A MASSIVE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
TO THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE ABOUT 90 NM NORTH OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND EXTENDING FROM GUATEMALA TO THE NORTHWESTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 90W AND 91W. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ALSO IN A ROPE-CLOUD THAT MARKS THE FRONT ALONG 25N88W
28N84W BEYOND 31N80W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE TO THE
SOUTH OF THIS CYCLONIC CENTER...STRETCHING FROM EASTERN HONDURAS
AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W.
HIGH LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PUSHING SOME CLOUDS NORTHWARD...
IN THE AREA FROM COLOMBIA TO 15N BETWEEN THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA
AND 80W. LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS EAST OF 76W IN THE
SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD AND LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 40W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DIGGING
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 30W AND 40W NORTH OF 20N.
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO 27N34W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 30N29W AND 23N32W. MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND TO
THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...WITHIN 15 NM TO 30N NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 22N32W TO 28N27W BEYOND 32N26W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
GOES FROM 16N30W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS AND POSSIBLY BEYOND
THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO.

$$
MT




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net