[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031147
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN FEB 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N7W 5N16W 2N33W 2N43W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 50W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 20W-30W AND
FROM 7N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES
LEAVING THE GULF WITH WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW. DRY STABLE AIR AND
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ARE INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
DOMINATES THE GULF S OF 28N. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF
ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OVER S GEORGIA EXTENDING SW TO
TAMPICO MEXICO GIVING THE GULF MODERATE/STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS SURFACE FLOW IS BANKING SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTLINES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE GULF WITH THE NEXT FRONT EXPECTED
MIDWEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 73W WITH A LONG
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR GUADELOUPE TO NEAR 14N71W COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN
E OF 73W. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO IN THE E CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM 12N63W ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO 23N69W. DRY STABLE
AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ARE INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE W
TROPICAL ATLC E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE
USHERING IN SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 73W. OTHERWISE THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER
TRANQUIL THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE REGION OVER BERMUDA TO NEAR 31N70W. A REMNANT
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N76W TO THE FLORIDA COAST BETWEEN
DAYTONA BEACH AND MELBOURNE. LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED
DUE TO THE DRY STABLE AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE INDICATED BY
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT COVERS THE AREA W OF 40W. LONG UPPER
TROUGH TRANSVERSES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ACROSS THE CANARY
ISLANDS ALONG 25N39W ACROSS THE W TROPICAL ATLC AND INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR GUADELOUPE. A SURFACE
TROUGH REFLECTION EXTENDS FROM 21N35W TO 27N37W. POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. BROAD
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICS AND A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 80
TO 130 KT EXTENDING ALONG THE N PERIPHERY WITHIN 225/300 NM OF
LINE FROM 17N50W ALONG 22N28W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA NEAR
22N16W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A
1026 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION NEAR 34N42W WITH WEAKNESSES IN THE
REGION OF THE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGHS.

$$
WALLACE





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