[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030538
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN FEB 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 3N18W 4N41W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
200 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 20W-32W...FROM THE ITCZ AXIS TO
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 39W-42W...AND FROM 1N S OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 28W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE NW ATLC LEAVING THE
GULF WITH WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE COVERS THE
GULF EXTENDING FROM A 1026 MB HIGH OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TO SE TEXAS GIVING THE GULF MODERATE/STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS
FLOW IS BANKING SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTLINES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE GULF WITH THE NEXT FRONT EXPECTED ON
TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 73W WITH A LONG
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR GUADELOUPE TO NEAR 14N72W COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN
E OF 73W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING
FROM 14N63W ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO TO 20N66W. DRY
STABLE AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ARE INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGER WINDS IN
THE W TROPICAL ATLC E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THESE TRADE WINDS
ARE USHERING IN SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. OTHERWISE THE CARIBBEAN IS RATHER TRANQUIL
TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT N OF THE REGION AND A REMNANT DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
ENTERING THE W ATLC NEAR 32N70W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR
MELBOURNE. LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED DUE TO THE DRY
STABLE AIR IN PLACE. LONG UPPER TROUGH TRANSVERSES THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 27N35W ACROSS THE W
TROPICAL ATLC AND INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR GUADELOUPE. A SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION EXTENDS
FROM 21N39W TO 27N32W. WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 23N-27N. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
TROPICS AND A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 80 TO 130 KT EXTENDING
ALONG THE N PERIPHERY WITHIN 200/250 NM OF LINE FROM 15N50W
ALONG 22N28W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA NEAR 22N16W. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLC TONIGHT ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH N
OF THE REGION NEAR 35N45W WITH WEAKNESSES IN THE REGION OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND DISSIPATING FRONT.

$$
WALLACE


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