[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022321
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT FEB 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W NM35W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 41W AND INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S44W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 23W-35W. WIDESPREAD MODERATE CONVECTION IS BETWEEN
THE AXIS AND 10N BETWEEN 22W AND 37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1027 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE SRN US EXTENDS A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS
THE GULF. SE TO S RETURN FLOW IS ADVECTING PATCHY CLOUDS TO THE
WEST GULF. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE ENTIRE REGION.
ALOFT...SWLY FLOW IS TRANSPORTING UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE FAR
NW GULF. ELSEWHERE...THE GULF REMAINS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM NEAR
10N59W ALONG 15N64W CROSSING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR
18.5N65W. ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO.
SATELLITE INDICATES THE MAJORITY OF MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES ALONG THE BASE OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH JUST E OF
THE ISLANDS. NEARLY ALL OF THE CLOUDS ARE SHALLOW IN NATURE
CAPPED BY ABUNDANT SUBSIDENCE EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER RIDGE THAT
REMAINS PARKED ALONG 77W/78W. TRADE WINDS ARE MAINLY MODERATE
AND OUT OF THE NE ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE W
ATLC. AS OF 18Z...THE BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT N OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA...BECOMING STATIONARY AND DISSIPATING AS IT
ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 31N74W AND MOVES INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA
NEAR 29N81W. SHIP AND BUOY OBS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK
PREFRONTAL TROUGH ALONG 30N70W 28N72W TO 26N74W. BOTH OF THESE
LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES ARE WEAK WITH ONLY PATCHY CLOUDS IN THEIR
VICINITY. THE REMNANTS OF AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A
LOW-LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENING FROM THE SE CARIB NEAR 10N59W ACROSS
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 24N69W. PATCHY CLOUDS DOT THE CENTRAL ATLC
AS FAIR WEATHER RESIDES AROUND A 1030 MB SFC HIGH NEAR 35N45W.
FARTHER E...ANOTHER WEAK SFC TROUGH REMNANT OF A FORMER UPPER
LOW STRETCHES FROM 28N30W ALONG 24N36W TO 19N40W. THIS TROUGH IS
MARKED BY LOW-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE WITH AN AREA OF DIFFUSE
MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE NE EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH. THIS SFC
TROUGH AND THE ONE FARTHER W IS ENHANCING NE TO E TRADES ACROSS
THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC E OF 70W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ON THE N SIDE OF
AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 2N28W IS PRODUCING AND TRANSPORTING MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AND ENHANCING CONVECTION WITHIN AND N OF THE
ITCZ.

$$
WADDINGTON


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