[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021730
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT FEB 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N10E 5N10W 3N25W 3N37W THEN CURVING
S CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 41W TO 2S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
23W-35W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 32W-38W
ENHANCED BY AN UPPER JET AXIS TO THE N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE SE GULF IS FIZZLING FROM S
FLORIDA TO 23N88W. THE COOL/DRY AIRMASS ADVECTED IN BEHIND THIS
FRONT ON THU AND FRI HAS ALREADY BEEN REPLACED BY A MUCH
MILDER/MORE HUMID ONE DUE TO THE SFC HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTING E
CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE SE CONUS. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES
THE ENTIRE REGION WITH ONLY PATCHY CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED
SHOWERS EVIDENT W OF 91W STEERED BY SLY LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW.
THE MID AND UPPER FLOW IS MAINLY W TO SWLY ADVECTING A STREAM OF
PACIFIC HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS N MEXICO INTO THE SRN
U.S...BUT THE GULF REMAINS IN A SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER CUT OFF LOW THAT HAS BEEN SPINNING E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES OVER THAT PAST FEW DAYS HAS OPENED BUT STILL SUPPORTING
AN ELONGATED SFC TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC WATERS SWD
ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THRU THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG
24N68W 18N65W 11N59W. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES PATCHES OF
CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT E OF 72W...THICKEST
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE MOISTURE PATCHES GENERALLY THIN
OUT W OF 72W AWAY FROM THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH. NEARLY ALL OF THE
CLOUDS ARE SHALLOW IN NATURE CAPPED BY ABUNDANT SUBSIDENCE
EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER RIDGE THAT REMAINS PARKED ALONG 77W/78W.
TRADE WINDS ARE MAINLY MODERATE AND OUT OF THE NE ACROSS THE
REGION. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING SETTLES DUE N OF THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH OFF THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD IS
PROVIDING LIMITED SUPPORT FOR A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
AREA NEAR 32N74W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY AND IS DISSIPATING TO S
FLORIDA. A WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS NOTED IN SHIP AND BUOY OBS
ALONG 71W/72W FROM 27N-30N. BOTH OF THESE LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES
ARE WEAK WITH ONLY PATCHY CLOUDS IN THEIR VICINITY. THE REMNANTS
OF AN UPPER LOW IS STILL SUPPORTING A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH
WEAKENING FROM THE SE CARIB NEAR 11N59W TO 24N68W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 240 NM E OF THIS BOUNDARY. A
SIMILAR SCENARIO EXISTS ABOUT 1300 NM TO THE ENE WHERE THE
REMNANTS OF A BROAD UPPER LOW HAS SOME INFLUENCE ON A SFC TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM 19N41W TO 27N32W. INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL SPEED
CONVERGENCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN
31W-38W. THIS SFC TROUGH AND THE ONE FARTHER W IS ENHANCING NE
TO E TRADES ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC E OF ABOUT 70W. A JET
WITH CORE WINDS NEAR 100 KT OR SO ORIGINATES NEAR 16N50W AND
EXTENDS NE TO 27N25W THEN EWD ACROSS INTO AFRICA. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE TO THE E OF THE JET AXIS IS PRODUCING AND
TRANSPORTING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND ENHANCING CONVECTION
WITHIN AND N OF THE ITCZ. SEE ITCZ SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS.

$$
CANGIALOSI




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