[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021124
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT FEB 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N30W 3N38W 1S50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 27W-31W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN
34W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ALONG 27N80W 21N90W 17N93W.  THE FRONT IS MARKED BY A
BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND IS BEGINNING TO
DISSIPATE.  A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER TENNESSEE NEAR
36N85W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT
WINDS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SWLY FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER SE TEXAS MOVING E.  EXPECT...FAIR WEATHER OVER
THE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS DUE TO SURFACE RETURN FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS DOTTING THE
CARIBBEAN SEA MOSTLY E OF 73W...MOVING SW.  A SURFACE TROUGH
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 60W/61W
MOVING W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N57W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS E
OF 70W.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 70W-90W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE AREA.  EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF
80W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N75W
27N80W.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  A 1036
MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 44N52W.  A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 27N36W 20N39W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 30W-39W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS ...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N
W OF 75W SUPPORTING THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT.  A RIDGE IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 60W-75W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
24N38W.  A 110-130 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC
AND W AFRICA FROM 20N40W TO BEYOND 24N15W.  EXPECT THE
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGHS WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL LOWS TO DRIFT W AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA





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