[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT FEB 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N1W 4N20W 4N30W 5N38W 1N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 26W-31W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N
BETWEEN 36W-40W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
3N-6N BETWEEN 41W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ALONG 29N80W 24N84W 21N90W.  THE FRONT IS MARKED BY A
BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WITH NO PRECIPITATION.  A 1025 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N91W AND
IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...SWLY FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF
OF MEXICO.  A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER SE TEXAS
MOVING E.  EXPECT...FAIR WEATHER OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST
OF TEXAS DUE TO SURFACE RETURN FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS DOTTING THE
CARIBBEAN SEA MOSTLY E OF 73W...MOVING SW.  A SURFACE TROUGH
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IS JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG
59W MOVING W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N58W.  CYCLONIC
FLOW IS E OF 70W.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 70W-90W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS
THE ENTIRE AREA.  EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
E OF 75W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N76W 29N80W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  A 1033 MB HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N43W.  A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 27N36W 18N38W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 33W-38W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS
...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N W OF 75W
SUPPORTING THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT.  A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN
60W-75W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
24N38W.  A 110-130 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC
AND W AFRICA FROM 20N40W TO BEYOND 24N15W.  EXPECT THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGHS WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOWS
TO DRIFT W AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA


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