[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN FEB 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N30W 1N45W EQ50W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 24W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S GEORGIA NEAR 31N83W.  A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR
22N95W AND IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.  WINDS ARE LIGHT OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO EXCEPT FOR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE 20 KT SELY
WINDS ARE NOTED.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS PRODUCING
SWLY FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
S OF 29N.  A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER S U.S. GULF
STATES N OF 29N.   EXPECT...FAIR WEATHER OVER THE GULF FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG
THE COASTS OF SE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA DUE TO SURFACE RETURN FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W IN
MODERATE TRADEWINDS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOST PREVALENT OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 78W-88W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL A RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W
OF 75W.  THE BASE OF A TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W.
VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.  EXPECT... LITTLE
CHANGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SRN EXTENT OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF NE
FLORIDA ALONG 32N77W 29N82W.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM OF THE TROUGH.  A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 33N68W.  ANOTHER 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 33N44W.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
ALONG 28N38W 20N37W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN
32W-39W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS ...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
W OF 70W.  A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC BETWEEN 30W-70W.   AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 29N41W.  A 110-130 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE
TROPICAL E ATLANTIC AND W AFRICA FROM 12N50W TO BEYOND 20N15W.
EXPECT...THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
E ATLANTIC TO DRIFT W AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA






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