[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260514
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N13W 3N24W 4N45W 2N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 6N16W
6N23W TO 3N31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E US AND W ATLC DRAPING A
STATIONARY FRONT FROM SOUTH CAROLINA TO E TEXAS NEAR HOUSTON
GIVING THE N COAST PATCHES OF FOG INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG
THE COAST FROM APALACHICOLA BAY FLORIDA TO GALVESTON TEXAS. THE
GULF WATERS REMAINS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
NOTED S OF 28N. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE N/CENTRAL ATLC
GIVES THE ENTIRE GULF RETURN FLOW WITH SCATTERED PATCHES OF LOW
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND WITHIN WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG
THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN IN THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE E OF 95W.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS TRANQUIL TONIGHT.
NEXT MAJOR FRONT TO ENTER THE GULF IS EXPECTED LATE SAT/EARLY
SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NNW ACROSS CUBA TO THE E
COAST OF FLORIDA ALSO COVERING THE W ATLC WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR ALSO DOMINATING THE AREA. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS PRODUCING
MODERATE/STRONG ELY TRADE WINDS AND COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 16N W OF 80W TO INLAND
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT E MAINTAINING THE MODERATE/STRONG
TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND DIMINISHING ON MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING W TO
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 33N51W.
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W
ATLC TO 50W WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS CUBA ALONG THE E
COAST OF FLORIDA TO 30N80W. A COLD FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE E
ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N22W EXTENDING SW ALONG 24N28W
21N38W THEN W TO 22N53W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM NW OF THE FRONT AND BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF THE
FRONT. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N31W S TO
26N33W THEN SW INTO THE TROPICS ALONG 21N47W TO JUST E OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 13N59W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE SE OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH COUPLED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIED ALONG 33W TO INLAND
OVER THE W AFRICA ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200/225 NM OF LINE FROM SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
5N52W TO 13N30W. MODERATE/STRONG ELY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE TROPICAL ATLC AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

$$
WALLACE





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net