[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261115
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N10W 5N22W 4N45W 3N51W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150/180 NM S OF
THE ITCZ FROM 16W-21W AND AND FROM 32W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR NOTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE BASIN. SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC COVERS THE
GULF GIVING THE ENTIRE GULF RETURN FLOW WITH SCATTERED PATCHES
OF LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. PATCHES OF FOG ARE INLAND
AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE ENTIRE N GULF COAST FROM TAMPA
FLORIDA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. NEXT MAJOR FRONT TO ENTER THE GULF
IS EXPECTED LATE SAT/EARLY SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NNW ACROSS CUBA AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA INCLUDING THE W ATLC COVERING MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE ATLC AND WITH THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH
AMERICA IS PRODUCING MODERATE/STRONG ELY TRADE WINDS. THESE
TRADE WINDS COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN S OF 16N W OF 81W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT
E AND WEAKEN. HOWEVER...THE MODERATE/STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DIMINISHING ON MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING W TO
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 31N71W
WITH A 1027 MB HIGH IN THE N/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N48W. THE UPPER
RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC TO
50W WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS CUBA TO OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. A COLD FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE E ATLC INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N20W EXTENDING SW ALONG 24N26W TO 20N38W
THEN DISSIPATING W TO 21N52W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM NW OF THE FRONT AND BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF THE
FRONT AND THE CENTRAL ATLC E OF 65W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS THROUGH 32N28W S TO 26N26W THEN SW INTO THE TROPICS
ALONG 22N41W TO JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 13N59W. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE IS SE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH COUPLED WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIED ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM OF
LINE FROM SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N56W TO 13N36W. MODERATE/STRONG
ELY TRADE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

$$
WALLACE






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