[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 252323
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU DEC 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 5N20W 3N30W 4N40W AND INTO FAR NE
BRAZIL NEAR 3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 13W-16W. SIMILAR CONVECTION
IS FROM 4N-5N BETWEEN 24W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 32W-39W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AXIS ALONG 49W S OF 12N. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM
4N-8N BETWEEN 49W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WARM FRONT WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS IS INLAND OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF STATES FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO S TEXAS
ALONG 31N87W 30N84W 27N98W. THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS 10-15 KT
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW IN FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WEATHER AND
WARM TEMPERATURES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER FLORIDA
AND THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN
SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO
EXPECT...DENSE EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA ESPECIALLY S OF 20N
AND E OF 80W. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
DOTS THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N GUATEMALA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 89W-91W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS ALONG 80W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
34N50W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO N FLORIDA. A
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N23W AND EXTENDS SW TO
24N30W 23N50W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES W TO 24N63W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W. A TROUGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 40W-60W. ZONAL FLOW
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 40W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT OVER THE
ATLANTIC TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA




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