[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU DEC 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N27W 5N45W 4N49W AND INTO FAR NE
BRAZIL. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AXIS ALONG 47W S
OF 10N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
3N-8N BETWEEN 32W-43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
4N-7N BETWEEN 11W-15W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
POINT 5N50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG THE ERN
MEXICO COAST TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 15N97W. AS OF 1500 UTC...THIS
TROUGHING SUPPORTS A 1019 MB SURFACE LOW EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI
TEXAS NEAR 27N97W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW ALONG
THE TEXAS GULF COAST TO NEAR LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA. A SURFACE
TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS SWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
TO NEAR 22N97W. LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN
90 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE FAR NW AND WRN GULF
WATERS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY STABLE AIR NOTED SW OF A LINE FROM THE BIG BEND AREA OF
FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W
ATLC INTO THE ERN GULF E OF 93W AND IS PROVIDING THE GULF AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH S-SE RETURN FLOW AND PATCHES OF LOW
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER HIGH
CENTERED N OF COLOMBIA NEAR 12N75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR IS ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.
HOWEVER...SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN USHERED IN ON MODERATE/STRONG ELY TRADE WINDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. A STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH IN THE W ATLC AND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD MAINTAINING THE MODERATE/STRONG TRADE
WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS ACROSS THE ATLC ENTERING THE ERN ATLC NEAR
32N25W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 27N30W TO 24N40W THEN W TO 23N50W
BECOMING STATIONARY TO 23N60W WHERE IT WEAKENS TO A SURFACE
TROUGH W TO OVER THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 25N78W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COLD FRONT
N OF 25N WITH BROKEN/OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NE TO BEYOND 32N57W. A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N28W SW TO NEAR 20N50W
AND TO TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE BASE OF
THIS TROUGH IS ENHANCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 32W-44W. A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS
ACROSS THE NE ATLC AND EXTENDS FROM 32N19W ACROSS THE WRN CANARY
ISLANDS TO NEAR 27N19W. MODERATE/STRONG ELY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

$$
HUFFMAN





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