[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031146
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED DEC 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM THE SIERRA LEONE/LIBERIA BORDER NEAR 8N11W TO 5N25W 7N41W
ACROSS FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME TO 5N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 10N.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC ENVELOPE COVERS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W...THE EASTERN U.S.A...AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFTER THE FIRST ONE FROM
24 HOURS AGO...IS MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA...TO THE CENTRAL GULF AND
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS CYCLONIC ENVELOPE SUPPORTS
THE TWO COLD FRONTS THAT CURRENTLY PASS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ORIENTED FROM SOUTHERN
GEORGIA TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVERYWHERE. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE FORECAST IS FOR
THIS GALE WIND EVENT TO STOP AROUND 03/1200 UTC.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE FIRST COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE LINE THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
TO CENTRAL JAMAICA TO COASTAL PANAMA NEAR 9N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 12N WEST OF
80W. THE SECOND COLD FRONT RANGES FROM 100 NM TO 180 NM TO THE WEST
OF THE FIRST COLD FRONT FROM JAMAICA NORTHWARD...AND WITHIN 420 NM
TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE FIRST FRONT SOUTH OF JAMAICA.
NORTHERLY SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW IS WEST OF 80W NORTH OF
15N. THE TROUGH/TROPICAL WAVE NOW IS ALONG 69W/70W SOUTH OF 15N...
MOVING WEST 10 KT OR LESS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM VENEZUELA AT 10N 14N BETWEEN 68W AND
74W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE FIRST COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO 27N70W TO SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA NEAR 20N76W. THE SECOND COLD FRONT IS WITHIN 120 NM TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE FIRST FRONT. THE CLOUD BAND THAT THE FRONTS
SHARE IS IDENTIFIABLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N67W 27N70W
20N76W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE
IS BLOWING RIGHT OVER THE TOP OF BOTH COLD FRONTS. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 15N70W BEYOND 32N61W. A LARGE-SCALE
DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH 32N37W
TO 18N53W INTO NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA NEAR 6N66W. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS NORTHWEST OF THE EDGE OF THE WIND
MAXIMA THAT IS ON THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN SIDES OF THE TROUGH...
ALONG 8N59W AT THE GUYANA/VENEZUELA BORDER TO 12N50W AND 20N40W.
A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N44W. A SURFACE TROUGH/
CONFLUENT WIND LINE IS ALONG 27N32W 20N34W 13N40W 9N41W...
THE REMNANT OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DEEP LAYER TROUGH.

$$
MT






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