[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED DEC 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM SIERRA LEONE TO 4N25W 7N45W ACROSS FRENCH GUIANA.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF
AXIS FROM 17W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO N OF 23N WITH SLIGHT SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALONG THE GULF
COAST FROM EASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
A SURFACE RIDGE IS ORIENTED FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE
AIR AT THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE
ENTIRE AREA. BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE AREA
W OF 85W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE CUBA ACROSS CENTRAL JAMAICA TO
COASTAL PANAMA NEAR 9N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS NEAR COSTA RICA S OF 12N W 82W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS NEAR THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 16N-12N ALONG 72W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE FRONT FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN THE
TROUGH TO 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE SW TO PANAMA. MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR IN MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE IS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W...HOWEVER
SOME LOW TOP SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH PUERTO RICO AND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST FROM THE
GEORGIA COAST TO S FLORIDA. COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N65W TO
24N71W THEN STATIONARY TO  SE CUBA. OVERCAST MID AND LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE FRONT...THERE MAY ALSO BE A
FEW SHOWERS AS WELL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N56W TO
AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE. ASIDE FROM
THE AREA NEAR THE FRONT MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
AREA W OF 50W. LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED NEAR 26N41W WITH A TROUGH FROM 32N38W TO 10N60W. A
90-110 KT NLY JETSTREAM IS W OF THE TROUGH FROM 30N44W TO 19N52W
AND A 90-110 KT SLY JET IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 15N45W TO
30N31W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 380 NM N AND 180 NM S OF
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. DOWNSTREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH
AXIS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 8N20W TO 32N23W.

$$
DGS


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