[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030540
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED DEC 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N11W TO 5N23W 7N41W INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL THROUGH THE EQUATOR ALONG TO 5N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 10N.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC ENVELOPE STILL COVERS THE EASTERN
U.S.A. AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS
AGO ALREADY HAS MOVED TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST...OUT OF THE AREA.
IT IS ALONG 28N77W BEYOND 32N76W. THE SECOND COLD FRONT THAT WAS
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...NOW
COVERING THE AREA FROM THE BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
28N86W.  MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVERYWHERE.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
THE FORECAST IS FOR THIS GALE WIND EVENT TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE FIRST COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE LINE THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
TO JUST WEST OF JAMAICA TO 12N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 14N WEST OF 79W.
THE TROUGH/TROPICAL WAVE NOW IS ALONG 68W/69W SOUTH OF 16N...
MOVING WEST 10 KT OR LESS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM VENEZUELA TO THE MIDDLE OF THE CUBA
TO 14N BETWEEN 67W AND 73W. NORTHERLY SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
IS WEST OF 80W NORTH OF 15N. THE CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS
NOW IS ALONG 68W/69W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM VENEZUELA TO THE MIDDLE OF THE CUBA
TO 14N BETWEEN 67W AND 73W. THE SECOND COLD FRONT RANGES FROM 120 NM
TO 180 NM TO THE WEST OF THE FIRST COLD FRONT NORTH OF 20N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BOTH COLD FRONTS START IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS ALREADY AT THIS
TIME. THE FIRST COLD FRONT RANGES FROM 120 NM TO 180 NM TO THE WEST
OF THE SECOND COLD FRONT. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM
A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE IS BLOWING RIGHT OVER THE TOP OF BOTH COLD
FRONTS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 15N70W BEYOND
32N61W. WE SEE A BAND OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE NORTHEASTWARD-
RUSHING CLOUDS. A LARGE-SCALE DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WITH MULTIPLE CENTERS IS NORTH
OF 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS MASS OF
CYCLONIC SWIRLING TO 18N45W AND 10N60W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. A SURFACE
TROUGH/CONFLUENT WIND LINE IS ALONG 10N41W 14N40W 20N33W 25N32W
28N33W...THE REMNANT OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DEEP LAYER TROUGH.

$$
MT





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