[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250518
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N8W 3N20W 2N30W EQ50W.  CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN
9W-13W...AND FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 11W-15W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 16W-23W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3S-1N BETWEEN 33W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR
36N75W.  A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
NEAR 21N97W.  10-15 KT SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO.  MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOMINATES THE  CENTRAL GULF.  BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
TEXAS...MEXICO...AND THE W GULF W OF 94W.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF E OF 84W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 95W
PRODUCING MOSTLY NWLY FLOW.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER THE N GULF N OF 24N.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  EXPECT... SELY SURFACE RETURN FLOW WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF W
OF 90W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF PUERTO RICO
FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 64W-69W.  A 1005 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER N
COLOMBIA NEAR 6N72W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
N OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 70W-76W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER NE VENZUELA FROM 5N-10N
BETWEEN 62W-65W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA HAS A
TROUGH N OF 10N AND W OF 70W.  THE E CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY
THE WRN EXTENT OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED IN THE
ATLANTIC NEAR 9N52W PRODUCING SWLY FLOW E OF 70W.  STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WHILE SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE IS OVER NRN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE E CARIBBEAN E OF
70W.  EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 13N DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC WITH A 1009 MB SURFACE
LOW NEAR 28N66W AND AN UPPER LEVEL CENTER NEAR 29N65W.  A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER FROM
28N-31N BETWEEN 60W-65W.  ANOTHER 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 25N72W.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ALONG 32N34W 25N43W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM E OF THE TROUGH.  A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NW SPAIN
SW TO 28N32W.  EXPECT ALL THE SURFACE LOWS AND TROUGHS IN THE
ATLANTIC TO SHIFT E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT
CONVECTION.

$$
FORMOSA





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