[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251030
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 2N30W 1N40W EQ50W.  CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN
7W-14W...AND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 13W-22W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 20W-23W...AND FROM
2S-2N BETWEEN 35W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR
36N75W.  A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
NEAR 21N97W.  10-15 KT SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE INLAND OVER S TEXAS BETWEEN 96W-100W.  MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS
ARE OVER THE NW GULF...AND OVER FLORIDA...MOVING RAPIDLY E.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS
ALONG 95W PRODUCING MOSTLY NWLY FLOW.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 24N.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  EXPECT... SELY SURFACE RETURN FLOW
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W
GULF W OF 90W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF PUERTO RICO
FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 64W-69W.  A 1007 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER N
COLOMBIA NEAR 8N72W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 72W-76W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA HAS A TROUGH N OF 10N
AND W OF 70W.  THE E CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY THE WRN EXTENT OF
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED IN THE ATLANTIC NEAR 9N52W
PRODUCING SWLY FLOW E OF 70W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WHILE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS OVER NRN SOUTH
AMERICA AND THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.  EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 13N DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A  VERTICALLY STACKED DEEP LAYERED LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
WITH A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 28N64W AND AN UPPER LEVEL CENTER
NEAR 28N64W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S TO HISPANIOLA NEAR
20N69W.  SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE N OF THE UPPER LOW
CENTER FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 60W-65W.  ANOTHER 1012 MB LOW IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 23N72W.  A 1010 MB LOW IS FURTHER E
NEAR 30N56W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-30N
BETWEEN 56W-58W.  THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N33W 28N37W.  A SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES SW TO 25N44W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF
THE FRONT AND TROUGH.  EXPECT THE TWO MOST WRN SURFACE LOWS TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE LOW AT 30N56W
TO MOVE NE OUT OF THE AREA TO 37N51W WITHIN 24 HOURS WITH
LIGHT CONVECTION.

$$
FORMOSA






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