[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242315
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU APR 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
WWWW UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N6W 3N16W 2N30W THEN ALONG THE
EQUATOR FROM 40W-52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE S OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN
5W-10W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 10W-14W.
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 16W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE MOST OF THE GULF ANCHORED IN
THE E PACIFIC REGION WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO TO OVER E TEXAS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SE
US INTO THE GULF N OF 25N. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E
GULF E OF 86W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE W ATLC
DIPPING S INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE GULF REMAINS RATHER QUIET
THIS EVENING WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE W COAST OF
FLORIDA DUE TO THE EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE W ATLC. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SUN AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER FLORIDA AND THE W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN
UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA SE OF TRINIDAD. THIS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE
OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N BETWEEN 74W TO ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COVER THE AREA
RESULTING FROM THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ATLC WATERS.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GENERATED OVER
PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA NOW DRIFTING NE MOSTLY INTO
THE W ATLC COASTAL WATERS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR THAT
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN RESULTING  IN CLEAR
SKIES MAINLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER
THE W ATLC W OF 60W WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR 29N66W. A
WEAKENING 1012 MB LOW MOVING S IS CENTERED NEAR 27N71W WITH NO
SHOWER ACTIVITY. A SECOND SURFACE 1011 MB LOW IS TO THE E NEAR
28N67W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 26N65W TO NEAR
22N70W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 20N-31N BETWEEN 50W-66W. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GENERATED INLAND OVER
PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND ARE DRIFTING NE OVER THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL WATERS. A STRONG UPPER LOW IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION AND A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N37W ALONG
24N46W TO 26N51W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OFF
THE SOUTH AMERICA COAST NEAR 9N54W NE TO BEYOND 32N45W AND
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC.

$$
WALLACE


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