[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 241759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU APR 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

6N10W 3N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 36W INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM SOUTH OF
ITCZ BETWEEN 13W AND 17W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ BETWEEN 23W AND 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO/TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ALONG
90W. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS COVERS MUCH OF
COASTAL TEXAS AND THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE RETURN FLOW OF 10 TO
20 KTS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST AND PROVIDE SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. LARGE SCALE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO EAST OF 83W...ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 27N67W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

FRESH TO MODERATE TRADEWINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. BROAD
CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...VENEZUELA...AND THE EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED
ACROSS COASTAL VENEZUELA WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
SKIRTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS
COVERED BY DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 27N67W
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ACROSS SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO AND WILL DIMINISH
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 27N67W...SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS
MAYAGUANA BAHAMAS...INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA/THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 29N69W AND CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD IN CONCERT
WITH A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N59W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTER FROM 28N67W 25N68W TO
21N71W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 TO 120 NM NORTH
AND EAST OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER FROM 29N59W 27N58W TO 22N64W. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA IS ALONG 30N37W 27N42W TO 24N48W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 50 NM MILES EAST OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH 33N23W 23N39W TO 16N55W AND IS PROVIDING FRESH TO
MODERATE TRADEWINDS AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN.

$$
HUFFMAN/MT


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