[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 3N24W THEN ALONG THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 35W AND 50W INTO NE BRAZIL. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER GUINEA...SIERRA LEONE AND
LIBERIA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS
BETWEEN 20W AND 25W...AND WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 30W
AND 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR CONTINUES
TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE SE PORTION OF THE GULF
EARLY THIS EVENING. AS OF 2100 UTC...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHES FROM SOUTH FLORIDA...JUST SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO
22N89W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY THEN CONTINUES SW INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A BROKEN BAND OF LOW/MID
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. COLD
AIR HAS PENETRATED INTO THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AS DEPICTED
BY A RATHER UNIFORM STRATUS CLOUDS COVER AND A STATIONARY FRONT
IS ALSO ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR FROM
THE SE U.S. INDICATES A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS NEAR
THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION WITH STRONGER SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OFFSHORE WEST PALM BEACH. A COOLER AND DRIER ATMOSPHERE IS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND FAIR SKIES
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER
AIR...DEPICTED ON THE SFC ANALYSIS AS A TROUGH OVER THE SE CONUS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF TONIGHT REACHING SOUTH
FLORIDA MONDAY NIGHT. NLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL FOLLOW THE
SECONDARY FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING BEHIND THE MAIN
FRONT OVER THE SW GULF...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE
NEXT 6-12 HOURS. A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. SUPPORTS THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT. MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF. A 110-130 KT JETSTREAM IS
OVER THE N GULF STATES. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH OF
AREA TONIGHT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT REMAIN
IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTER ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA THIS EVENING. AS USUAL...SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW IS PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES...MAINLY SOUTH
OF GUADALOUPE WHERE THE COMBINATION OF SFC TROUGH AND A
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO PRODUCE MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES.
CONVECTION HAS ALSO DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN VENEZUELA. THE GFS
COMPUTER MODEL HAS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SFC TROUGH
AFFECTING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING THE US/UK VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FRESH
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN ASCAT PASS SHOWED NELY
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THE COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE SE GULF AND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ENTER
THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND IS FORECAST TO STALL FROM EASTERN
CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS MON NIGHT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA
NEAR 31N75W THE CONTINUES SW THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE GULF
OF MEXICO. A BAND OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS
IS RELATED TO THE FRONT OVER THE W ATLC. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS MONDAY MORNING REACHING THE
SE BAHAMAS MONDAY EVENING. E OF FRONT...A 1023 MB HIGH IS NEAR
28N48W COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND THE THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
ALONG 31N28W 28N31W 25N35W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. A RIDGE ANCHORED ON A HIGH NEAR PORTUGAL
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALOFT... A
RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN COVERS THE DISCUSSION AREA. A RIDGE
IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 50W. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC NEAR 31N20W ALL THE WAY WSW TO THE NE
CARIBBEAN. WLY UPPER FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA BETWEEN AFRICA AND
THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 12N TO 20N. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 8N40W.

$$
GR




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net