[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N20W 2N30W EQ35W 1S50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 19W-23W...
FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 35W-37W...AND FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 48W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALONG 27N80W 23N90W 18N93W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS EXTEND 180 NM N OF FRONT.  FAIR SKIES ARE ARE ALONG THE N
GULF COAST FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO S TEXAS.  GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE OVER THE SW GULF N OF THE FRONT S OF 24N W OF 93W.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
GULF WITH TROUGH AXIS ALONG 90W.  THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE
SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM.  A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS
FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  A 110-130 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER
THE N GULF N OF 27N.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO N BELIZE IN 24
HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 15N AND E OF 65W.  PATCHES OF
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO OVER S HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND
E CUBA.  MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE FROM THE CENTER
TO BEYOND E CUBA.  THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN E OF 79W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN EXCEPT FOR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WHERE SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE IS STREAMING NE FROM VENEZUELA.  EXPECT CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT OVER W CUBA...THE NW CARIBBEAN ...AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT
CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 1500 UTC A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N74W
27N80W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT.  A
1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N49W.  THE TAIL
END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N29W 28N31W
26N36W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 50W.
ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 20N E OF 50W.  A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 8N40W.  ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IS FROM EQ-20N BETWEEN 20W-60W.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE W ATLANTIC TO EXTEND FROM 32N66W TO CENTRAL CUBA IN 24 HOURS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  ALSO EXPECT THE COLD FRONT OVER THE E
ATLANTIC TO DISSIPATE S OF 30N DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA




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