[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140524
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON APR 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N20W 2N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 43W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST
BETWEEN 4N-8N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W AND 28W. WIDESPREAD
MODERATE CONVECTION IS BETWEEN THE AXIS AND 5S W OF 28W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE COLD FRONT THAT HAD BEEN TRAVERSING THE GULF THE PAST FEW
DAYS HAS FINALLY MADE ITS WAY TO THE CARIBBEAN LEAVING A COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. THE ONLY REMAINING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS IN THE STRAIGHTS OF
FLORIDA WHERE DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT NE AND WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AS
THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER SE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE.
A WEAK 1023MB SFC HIGH HAS FORMED NEAR 27N94W. FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH HAS CAUSED COLD AIR STRATUS TO BACK UP AGAINST THE SIERRA
MADRE MOUNTAINS. AS OF 03Z...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD
AIR...DEPICTED AS A SFC TROUGH...STRETCHED FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR PANAMA CITY ALONG 29N87W TO 28N93W. A BAND OF
LOW-LEVEL CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH...HOWEVER
DOPPLER RADAR HAS YET TO INDICATE ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWERS.
ALOFT...NEAR ZONAL FLOW RESIDES OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE CONVECTION AROUND THE SFC TROUGH...STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
IS KEEPING THE FAR NORTHERN GULF RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 03Z...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDED FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N82W ALONG 21N85W AND INTO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N88W. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT WILL
SHIFT N AND INCREASE TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SURROUND THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL FROM SE CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATER
TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN
ARE DOMINATED BY MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES...STRONGER WITHIN 120
NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW IS PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE BASIN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS INHIBITING ANY DEEP
CONVECTION FROM FORMING EXCEPT OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WHERE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT COMBINED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS E OF 67W. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION
TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 03Z...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W
ATLC NEAR 31N71W AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W AND
CROSSES OVER WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N82W. A BAND OF ASSOCIATED
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS RESIDES WITHIN 100 NM
OF THE BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING
SE...CROSSING FROM BERMUDA TO THE SE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT DRIFTS SE. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS
15 TO 20 KT INCREASE TO 25 KT LATER TODAY. FARTHER EAST...A
LARGE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB SFC HIGH NEAR 28N47W COVERS
THE CENTRAL ATLC. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TRANSPORTING FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE TAIL END OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE ATLC NEAR 31N27W AND STRETCHES TO 26N32W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A RIDGE
ANCHORED ON A HIGH NEAR PORTUGAL DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ALOFT... A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN COVERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA. WLY UPPER FLOW BETWEEN THE ELONGATED TROUGH AND
E ATLC RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES FROM 8N TO 16N TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC.

$$
GR/RJW





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