[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111030
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N7W 3N13W 2N26W 2N44W 1N51W. THE
WEAK 1010 MB LOW WAS ANALYZED NEAR 5N17W BUT IS NOT LONGER
DISCERNIBLE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N E
OF 7W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN...WITHIN 75 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS
FROM 12W-23W AND FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR W OF 39W TO INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE GULF FROM AN UPPER HIGH N OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N82W NNE TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE OVER THE SE US E OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER FLORIDA FROM THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A
HIGH NEAR BERMUDA. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF AND WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW IS BANKING SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST FROM
TUXPAN MEXICO TO VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA WHILE THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR AGAIN THIS MORNING. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINING INLAND. A
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES
INTO THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 16N FROM THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS TO
E CUBA BUT DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR THERE IS NO
SHOWER ACTIVITY. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA. MODERATE/STRONG E TRADE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS REMAINING ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE TRADE WINDS
CONTINUE TO USHER IN SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 71W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS S OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS RELATIVELY CLEAR AGAIN THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM FLORIDA TO
40W WITH A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM A 1010 MB LOW
NEAR 31N43W ALONG 26N47W TO A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 27N59W TO 24N62W
BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH TO 27N72W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONTS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS N AND W OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH JUST N OF BERMUDA NEAR
34N66W. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE E/W COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE CENTRAL INTO THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICS. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC E OF 38W TO NW AFRICA ANCHORED
BY A 1024 MB HIGH JUST S OF THE AZORES.

$$
WALLACE


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