[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110508
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 4N11W 5N17W THEN ALONG THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 26W-45W TO 1S48W. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS ALONG
THE ITCZ AXIS NEAR 5N16W MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD. THE CONVECTION
PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW HAS DISSIPATED. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-4N
BETWEEN 11W-22W AND WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM
32W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE GULF FROM AN UPPER HIGH ALONG
THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NNE TO OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS OVER FLORIDA AND W ATLC ANCHORED BY A HIGH ALONG
THE COAST OF NORTH/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR COVERS MOST OF THE GULF WITH SOME OVERRIDING UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO AND ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS. A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
WELL INLAND. STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS DOMINATE ALL BUT THE
NE GULF TONIGHT WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES. A FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO ENTER THE GULF OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE FRI INTO THE NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES
INTO THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 16N FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO CENTRAL
CUBA BUT DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR THERE IS ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS THAT
FORMED THIS AFTERNOON OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA MOVING OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA. MODERATE/STRONG E TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. THESE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER IN SOME LOW LEVEL
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 12N-16N E OF 70W TO OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS S OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS RELATIVELY CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC FROM FLORIDA TO 42W
WITH A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM A 1009 MB LOW NEAR
30N44W ALONG 26N46W TO A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 28N59W ALONG 24N62W TO
NEAR 31N74W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONTS E OF 63W. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE IS NW OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH
ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER AND A 1022 MB
HIGH TO THE E NEAR 24N67W. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE CENTRAL INTO THE E ATLC THAT ALSO COVERS THE TROPICS.
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC E OF 40W TO INLAND OVER NW
AFRICA ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH JUST S OF THE AZORES.

$$
WALLACE




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