[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 111731
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N7W 2N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR
30W THEN TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 70 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 11W-23W.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE BETWEEN THE AXIS
AND 3N WEST OF 36W AND INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER PRODUCING A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF LATER TODAY. AS OF 15Z...A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N92W TO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR
LAGUNA MADRE. LIGHT NE WINDS ARE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE
FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SFC RIDGE ANCHORED BY A HIGH NEAR
BERMUDA. S TO SE 15 TO 20 KT RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT N
AND INCREASE TO 25 KT FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT
MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS IN THE SW GULF BY SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN. LIGHTER THAN NORMAL EASTERLY TRADES
PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT 20 TO 25 KT
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LOW LEVEL ISOLATED TRADE
WIND SHOWERS ARE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE S OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...PATCHY CLOUDS
COVER THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1022 MB SFC HIGH NEAR BERMUDA IS MAINTAINING RELATIVELY CALM
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE W ATLC. FURTHER EAST...A 1011 MB SFC
LOW RESIDES NEAR 32N42W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
CENTER ALONG 28N42W TO 27N45W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG
28N50W TO A DISSIPATING SFC LOW NEAR 28N56W. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW CENTER ALONG 25N59W TO 23N62W WHERE IT
CONTINUES AS A TROUGH TO NEAR 28N71W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING GENERATED
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES...MOSTLY N OF 26N BETWEEN THE TWO LOW
CENTERS. GALE CONDITIONS EXIST JUST N OF THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
PRIMARY LOW CENTER. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS ROTATING AROUND A 1026
MB SFC HIGH DOMINATE THE EASTERN ATLC.

$$
WADDINGTON





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