[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101019
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU APR 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 4N16W 4N30W THEN ALONG THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 41W-52W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
4N-7N BETWEEN 10W-14W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM
17W-26W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N
TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 26W-35W AND FROM 2N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 39W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERS MEXICO
AND THE GULF TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS OVER THE E GULF AND FAR W ATLC ANCHORED BY A HIGH WELL N
OF THE REGION. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR COVERS MOST OF THE
GULF WITH SOME OVERRIDING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS
MEXICO AND ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL US WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL INLAND. THE GULF REMAINS
RELATIVELY CLEAR THIS MORNING. THE FRONT CURRENTLY INLAND OVER
TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE FRI
INTO SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA
COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM NE NICARAGUA TO W
HAITI BUT DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR THERE IS NO
SHOWER ACTIVITY. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE E/W UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE
TROPICS. MODERATE E TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING IN THE GULF
OF HONDURAS AND ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE TRADE WINDS
CONTINUE TO USHER IN SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM
12N-16N E OF 67W TO OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS JUST S OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM
ALONG THE COASTLINE. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS
RELATIVELY CLEAR AGAIN THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC FROM THE FLORIDA E
COAST TO 66W WITH A COMPLEX BUT WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING
FROM A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 29N50W ALONG 29N54W TO A 1014 MB LOW
NEAR 30N59W ALONG 27N63W TO WEAKENING 1016 MB LOW NEAR 31N72W. A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS TO JUST E OF THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS NEAR 24N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 30N45W 29N59W TO
28N69W. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC
WITH THE MEAN AXIS ALONG 45W AND A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH NEAR
24N59W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 28N E OF 30W
WITH A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF THE REGION AND A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH 32N10W JUST E OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 25N20W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUING
ALONG 22N29W TO 23N40W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS BETWEEN THE
FRONTAL SYSTEMS IN THE REGION. BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
TROPICS RESULTING IN NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW.

$$
WALLACE





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