[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101740
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU APR 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N24W 1N33W 1N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180
NM N AND 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 14W-17W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 37W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE MID TO UPPER RIDGE LIES OVER THE REGION PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD DRY AIR ALOFT ESPECIALLY S OF 24N...CLOSER TO THE
HIGH CENTER. PRONOUNCED MID-UPPER TROUGHING IS OVER THE ROCKIES
EXTENDING S TO MEXICO. THIS TROUGH IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A
COMPLEX 992 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE S CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH S TEXAS AND INTO N
MEXICO. THE TIGHT PRESS GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 1024 MB
HIGH PRES N OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING 20-30 KT S TO SE WINDS W OF
84W...BUILDING SEAS TO 11 FT. BESIDES FOR ISOLATED QUICK MOVING
SHALLOW SHOWERS...STEERED BY THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW...FAIR
WEATHER DOMINATES THANKS TO THE SUBSIDENT MID-UPPER RIDGE. NWP
MODELS SHOW THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING AND
PUSHING E DRIVING A COLD FRONT INTO THE NW WATERS TOMORROW. THIS
FRONT APPEARS TO BE A STRONG ONE...LIKELY CLEARING THE ENTIRE
AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS...THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO NE NICARAGUA. UPPER CONFLUENCE ALONG AND TO THE W OF
THIS TROUGH AXIS IS SUBSTANTIALLY DRYING OUT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS. E OF THE AXIS...BROKEN MID-HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
IS SPREADING NE FROM CONVECTIVE BLOW-UPS OVER THE TROPICAL EPAC
JUST S OF PANAMA. AT THE SFC...THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS MODERATE
TODAY WITH QSCAT DATA DEPICTING NE 20-25 KT WINDS NEAR COLOMBIA
AND 15-20 KT ELSEWHERE E OF ABOUT 80W. SIMILAR MAGNITUDE E TO SE
WINDS RESUME IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS...ENHANCED BY LOW PRES OVER
THE S CENTRAL CONUS. THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD STREAMERS APPEAR
THINNER THAN USUAL WITH THE ONLY ORGANIZED PATCHES OVER THE SE
CARIB FROM 12N-15N E OF 68W AND N OF 17N BETWEEN 71W-74W
...INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA. THE LATTER PATCH IS
ENHANCED BY A WEAK SFC TROUGH N OF THE AREA. MOISTURE MAY
INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS LOW-LEVEL TROUGHS IN
THE TROPICAL ATLC PUSH W INTO THE E CARIB AND AS A COLD FRONT
NEARS THE NW PORTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 40W...
A COMPLEX HORIZONTALLY STRETCHED SFC LOW PRES TROUGH EXTENDS
NEARLY ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL BELT W OF 40W. THE MAIN LOW...1013
MB...IS LOCATED NEAR 29N47W WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING WITHIN
180 NM SE OF THE LOW. A WEAK FRONT IS DRAPED W THROUGH A 1014 MB
LOW NEAR 29N58W TO AN ILL-DEFINED 1015 MB LOW NEAR 28N70W. A
TROUGH EXTENDS BOTH TO THE NW AND SW OF THIS LOW. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 29N BETWEEN 41W-46W IN AN
OVERRUNNING REGIME AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE N OF 24N E OF 72W. WINDS AROUND 20 KT ARE OCCURRING N
OF THE FRONT E OF 70W. THE MAIN LOW...1013 MB...IS EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN AND PUSH JUST NE OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW. THIS WILL
LIKELY HELP DECREASE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY W OF 55W. FARTHER S...A
LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IS PRESSING W ALONG 49W FROM 5N-11N AIDING IN
THE WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN
47W-55W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN E OF 40W...
A MID-UPPER TROUGH IS RETREATING OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION ZONE ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO DISSIPATE FROM MOROCCO
TO 25N16W CONTINUING TO 23N31W. A TROUGH HAS BROKEN OFF THE TAIL
END OF THE FRONT AND IS NOW MOVING W ALONG 37W FROM 21N-26N.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND
ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE DYING COLD
FRONT. QUIETER WEATHER PREVAILS ELSEWHERE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SFC RIDGING EXTENDING SWD FROM N OF
THE AZORES.

$$
CANGIALOSI




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