[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100515
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 3N16W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 21W-52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/MODERATE STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 8W-14W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 23W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERS MEXICO
AND THE GULF TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE E GULF AND FAR W ATLC ANCHORED BY
A HIGH OVER VIRGINIA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR COVERS MOST
OF THE GULF WITH SOME OVERRIDING UPPER MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS
MEXICO AND THE COAST OF TEXAS. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL US WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL INLAND. SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E GULF E OF 89W WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF CLEAR TONIGHT. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF OFF
THE TEXAS COAST LATE FRI INTO SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE E GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW
CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM NE HONDURAS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
BUT DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE
S COAST OF CUBA FROM 77W-83W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE E/W UPPER RIDGE
THAT COVERS THE TROPICS. MODERATE/STRONG E TRADE WINDS ARE
DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND CONTINUES TO USHER IN
SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 13N E OF 70W TO OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS OVER PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND AND WITHIN 45/60 NM ALONG THE COASTLINE. OTHERWISE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS RELATIVELY CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE FLORIDA EXTENDS OVER THE
W ATLC W OF 70W WITH A COMPLEX BUT WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING
FROM A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 29N51W ALONG 28N53W TO A 1014 MB LOW
NEAR 30N59W ALONG 28N63W TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 31N71W THEN S TO
JUST E OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N74W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF ALL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND THE CENTRAL
ATLC WITH THE MEAN AXIS ALONG 45W AND A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH NEAR
24N58W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 28N E OF 30W
WITH A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF THE REGION AND A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH 32N11W JUST E OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS TO 22N23W THEN DISSIPATING TO 22N36W. A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE IS BETWEEN THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS IN THE REGION. BROAD E/W
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICS RESULTING IN NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY
FLOW.

$$
WALLACE




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