[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070516
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON APR 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 4N20W 2N29W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 38W TO 2N46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 25W-31W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 27W-37W AND ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR
CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 21W TO ACROSS
THE PRIME MERIDIAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N
BETWEEN 41W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE US INTO THE N
GULF N OF 24N. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E GULF
EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER SW GEORGIA TO 26N87W. AT THE
SURFACE IS AN ILL-DEFINED STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NE
FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N93W. THE 1012 MB LOW THAT
WAS ANALYZED NEAR 21N85W IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE AND IS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP IN THE W ATLC IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A
STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM OVER FLORIDA NEAR AND
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM N OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY E OF 86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS TO OVER CUBA E OF 85W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS
RATHER CLEAR TONIGHT WITH THE E GULF CLEARING AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA LATE MON INTO TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WITH A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA AND EXTENDING INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN NW OF A LINE
FROM S NICARAGUA TO E HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER W CUBA MOVING N INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. MODERATE/STRONG E TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN
WITH STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE TRADE
WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF 69W
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO
THE W ATLC W OF 74W. HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE FROM THE COAST OF
FLORIDA NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE TO 29N78W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA FROM THE COAST OF CUBA TO 30N W OF 78W TO INLAND OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. BROAD UPPER
HIGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC CENTERED NEAR 26N62W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE AREA
W OF 45W ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 28N61W. BROAD UPPER
TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 26N E OF 50W TO OVER W AFRICA WITH
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS SW ALONG 24N22W TO 19N34W BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH TO
18N46W. THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS N OF THE REGION AS IS ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY. BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICS.

$$
WALLACE




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