[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070019
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN APR 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 4N20W 1N30W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 39W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S46W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN CLUSTERS
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 9N BETWEEN 24W AND 29W...AND FROM 2N TO 5N
BETWEEN 42W AND 52W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 1N TO 6N
BETWEEN 13W AND 18W...AND FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS MEXICO
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WEST OF 90W. A HINT OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS CYCLONIC
CENTER IS DRIVING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF LOUISIANA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE
WEST CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW CENTER TO 27N90W AND TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 23N97W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS
EVERYWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXCEPT FOR THE STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 83W AND 90W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER LAND IN
FLORIDA FROM MIAMI-DADE COUNTY/BROWARD COUNTY TO THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST ABOUT 60 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER AND
AROUND CUBA FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WESTWARD IN AN AREA OF
A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDS TO HONDURAS/NICARAGUA FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IN WESTERN GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW STILL COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 80W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
IS AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
PANAMA ALONG 81W TO NORTHERN COSTA RICA/SOUTHERN NICARAGUA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF
23N EAST OF 44W ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST WEST OF THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO
TO THE WATERS JUST WEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 27N20W TO
22N27W AND 20N34W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 30N15W
23N25W 18N40W. A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N62W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH
OF 10N BETWEEN 36W AND 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 24N65W
BEYOND 33N63W.

$$
MT




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