[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071028
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON APR 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N7W 3N19W 6N34W 4N45W 2N52W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO
S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 10W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 250
NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 28W-36W AND FROM THE ITCZ AXIS TO
S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 17W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE US INTO THE N
GULF N OF 23N. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E GULF
FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CAROLINA ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST TO
25N84W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1013 MB LOW IS ALONG THE NE COAST OF
FLORIDA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING S TO A 1012 MB LOW
INLAND OVER FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA WITH THE COLD FRONT CONTINUING
INTO THE GULF TO 26N88W. A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MOVED S
OF FLORIDA TO NEAR 25N80W ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA TO NEAR
24N88W. HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM NW OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY E OF 83W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CENTRAL
GULF FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 89W-93W RESULTING FROM UPPER LEVEL AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS RATHER
CLEAR TONIGHT WITH THE E GULF CLEARING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA LATER TODAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WITH A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA AND EXTENDING INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN NW OF A LINE
FROM S NICARAGUA TO PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 21N TO INLAND OVER W CUBA BETWEEN 81W-83W
AS A RESULT OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE SE GULF. MODERATE/
STRONG E TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGER WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN
SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF 70W OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO
THE W ATLC W OF 75W. HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS
NEAR 25N80W TO 28N78W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF A LINE
FROM CUBA NEAR 23N80W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W TO BEYOND
32N76W WITH SOME CLEARING ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA AND SE
GEORGIA N OF WEST PALM BEACH. BROAD UPPER HIGH COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR
26N60W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE AREA W OF 45W ANCHORED
BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 29N63W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E
ATLC N OF 27N E OF 50W TO OVER W AFRICA WITH A COMPLEX FRONTAL
SYSTEM N OF THE REGION AND A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION OVER
THE CANARY ISLANDS SW ALONG 26N19W TO 21N26W DISSIPATING TO
17N38W AND A SECOND SURGE...SURFACE TROUGH...EXTENDS FROM 31N32W
TO 25N38W.  THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS N OF THE REGION AS IS ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY. BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICS.

$$
WALLACE





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