[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011023
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE APR 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N4W 5N14W 2N23W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 27W TO 2S44W. THE ITCZ IN THE ATLC REMAINS VERY
ACTIVE THIS MORNING. SCATTERED STRONG WITH LARGE EMBEDDED
CLUSTERS OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
COVERING AN AREA WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS
BETWEEN 8W-28W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO S OF
THE EQUATOR E OF 3W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF 2N TO THE
COAST OF SW AFRICA BETWEEN 2W-8W AND FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 28W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER HIGH IN THE E PACIFIC REGION STILL COVERS MEXICO AND
S TEXAS INTO THE GULF W OF 83W. STRONG SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DIPPING S
TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WELL INLAND AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 28N W OF 88W. BROAD UPPER
TROUGH COVERS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE W AND CENTRAL
ATLC EXTENDING AS FAR S AS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A JETSTREAM
WITH WINDS TO 110 KT COVERS THE US FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO SW
ALABAMA THEN WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND DIPS DRAMATICALLY S ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN
ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NW ATLC
REMAINS ACROSS THE E GULF RESULTING IN SE SURFACE FLOW OVER MOST
OF THE GULF BANKING BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE N GULF
COAST AND THE COAST OF MEXICO BUT NO OTHER SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
INDICATED. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR
THIS MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS S OF 26N E OF 83W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TO 14N BETWEEN THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS AND W CUBA WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE BAHAMAS ACROSS E CUBA INTO
THE CARIBBEAN NEAR JAMAICA. A WEAK JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND N BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE N CARIBBEAN
FOLLOWING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO OVER PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
N OF 16N BETWEEN 72W-78W COVERING HAITI AND E CUBA. OTHERWISE
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC GIVING THE AREA W TO SW UPPER
FLOW. MODERATE/STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS DOMINATES ALL BUT THE
NW CARIBBEAN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...POSSIBLE PRE-SEASON
TROPICAL WAVE...IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 65W FROM THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND GENERATING ISOLATED
LOW LEVEL SHOWERS BETWEEN 62W-67W INCLUDING THE N LEEWARD AND
VIRGIN ISLANDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC TO 45W
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N41W
EXTENDING W TO 25N53W DISSIPATING TO 24N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. A SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE
N CARIBBEAN ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S
OF 25N FROM 70W-76W EXTENDING INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND FORCING THE
UPPER TROUGH S INTO THE CARIBBEAN AS WELL. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE AREA W OF THE FRONT INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO
ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION. BROAD UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED DEEP IN THE TROPICS COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF
25N E OF 60W AND THE S CARIBBEAN COVERING E ATLC E OF 45W. BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC E OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A
1030 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION.

$$
WALLACE




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