[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010512
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE APR 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 3N15W 2N28W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 34W TO 1S46W. THE ITCZ IN THE ATLC BECOME VERY
ACTIVE LATE ON MON WITH NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION NOW MOVING
WESTWARD COVERING THE AREA FROM 2.5N-6N BETWEEN 1W-11W AND FROM
4N-6N BETWEEN 11W-14W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM
14W-26W AND FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 2W ACROSS THE PRIME
MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 26W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER HIGH IN THE E PACIFIC REGION STILL COVERS MEXICO AND
S TEXAS INTO THE GULF W OF 86W. STRONG SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS
OVER ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI WITH ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE FAR E GULF OVER FLORIDA
AND INTO THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING AS FAR S AS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A RELATIVELY STRONG JETSTREAM COVERS THE S US
TO SW GEORGIA THEN WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND DIPS DRAMATICALLY S
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS
ACROSS THE E GULF ANCHORED IN THE NW ATLC RESULTING IN SE
SURFACE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE GULF BANKING BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS ALONG THE N GULF COAST AND THE COAST OF MEXICO BUT NO
SHOWER ACTIVITY INDICATED. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
REMAINS CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS FURTHER S OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO 15N BETWEEN THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS AND W
CUBA. A WEAK JETSTREAM EXTENDING S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM
THE E GULF OF MEXICO FOLLOWS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO
OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 16N BETWEEN 72W-78W COVERING
HAITI WITH PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND E CUBA. OTHERWISE THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC GIVING THE AREA W TO SW UPPER
FLOW. MODERATE/STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS DOMINATES ALL BUT THE
NW CARIBBEAN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...POSSIBLE PRE-SEASON
TROPICAL WAVE...IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 64W FROM THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA TO THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS AND GENERATING
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS W OF 65W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC TO 45W
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N43W
EXTENDING W TO 25N60W DISSIPATING NEAR STATIONARY TO 26N69W. A
WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N42W TO 26N46W AND IS
DENOTED AS A WIND SHIFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 41W-47W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS TO CENTRAL CUBA
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N FROM
71W-77W EXTENDING INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND FORCING THE UPPER
TROUGH S INTO THE CARIBBEAN AS WELL. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE AREA W OF THE FRONT INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO
ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION. BROAD UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED DEEP IN THE TROPICS COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF
25N E OF 60W AND THE S CARIBBEAN COVERING E ATLC E OF 45W WITH
ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC
E OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION E
OF THE AZORES.

$$
WALLACE



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net