[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE APR 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE COAST OF THE IVORY COAST NEAR 4W TO 4N10W 3N20W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 26W...TO 2S32W AND INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL NEAR 2S47W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 4N15W-EQUATOR
AT 26W...AND FROM 1N TO 4N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 40W AND MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 32N42W 28N50W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN THE
32N42W 28N50W TROUGH AND 70W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N73W...ACROSS THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO 16N75W...AND TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
NORTHERLY FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS TROUGH...AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA IS ADDING TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW.
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CLOSER TO THE AREA OF AN
ALREADY-EXISTING ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT...THROUGH 32N38W
29N40W 24N50W...DISSIPATING TO 23N60W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N41W BEYOND 32N38W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 66W/67W FROM THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES
TO PUERTO RICO. THE WAVE IS SPREADING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W. OTHER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
IN SURFACE EASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW...TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH...
FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEST
OF 81W THAT MAY OR MAY NOT REACH THE COAST OF NICARAGUA.

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS MEXICO FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ALL THE WAY TO
FLORIDA AND SPILLING OVER A LITTLE BIT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR THE BAHAMAS NORTH OF 26N. ANOTHER FACTOR ADDING
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS THE RESIDUAL FLOW
TO THE SOUTH OF A CENTRAL U.S.A. DEEP LAYER TROUGH. BROAD
SURFACE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS EASILY EVIDENT IN THE LOW
CLOUD FIELD.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 40W...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND AN EAST-WEST RIDGE
FROM 11N AT THE AFRICA COAST TO 9N ALONG THE SOUTH AMERICA
COAST. ANOTHER RIDGE IS ALONG 25N34W BEYOND 32N31W.

$$
MT




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net