[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300622
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EAST ATLANTIC ALONG
30W/31W SOUTH OF 7N...MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT.  THE WAVE REMAINS
WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...AND ITS POSITION IS MAINLY BASED
ON CONTINUITY. THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF A WESTWARD PROPAGATING
CONVECTIVE MASS ON SATELLITE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS...BUT THE SIGNAL
IS NOT CLEAR CUT. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN 28W AND 32W.

...ITCZ...

7N12W 4N20W 5N27W 5N32W 4N40W 6N48W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 18W AND 27W...FROM 1N TO 3N
BETWEEN 32W AND 35W...WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N33W 5N40W
7N48W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO...NEAR THE
TEXAS BORDER FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 100W AND 101W. OTHER
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 21N TO 30N BETWEEN THE
COASTAL PLAINS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND 103W. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE GULF WATERS FROM THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA JUST
SOUTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 85W AND
87W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS NORTH OF 14N
WEST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 12N75W...WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
FROM 12N86W IN WESTERN NICARAGUA TO SOUTHERN HONDURAS TO
EL SALVADOR NEAR 14N90W. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IS ABOUT 400 NM WEST OF EL SALVADOR
AT THE PRESENT TIME. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 13N82W TO 18N84W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR
21N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS GO FROM HONDURAS TO MEXICO BETWEEN 90W AND 92W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING WEST OF 76W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH STARTS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
NEAR 32N62W...AND GOES TO 25N63W AND 18N64W...IN THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS BETWEEN ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH AND U.S.A
VIRGIN ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO AND IN THE WATERS SURROUNDING
PUERTO RICO FROM 16N TO 20N.  A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM
A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N64W TO 24N62W...SWEEPING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ISLANDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO 18N75W JUST
NORTHEAST OF JAMAICA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN
60W AND 63W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N
TO 25N BETWEEN 57W AND 59S. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE
DEEP LAYER TROUGH.  A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH GOES FROM
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 29N33W TO 24N33W AND 14N46W.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA
EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH.

$$
MT

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