[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301101
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
ALONG 31W/32W SOUTH OF 7N...MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE
IS WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...AND ITS POSITION IS MAINLY
BASED ON CONTINUITY. THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF A WESTWARD-
MOVING AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ITCZ.

...ITCZ...

8N12W 5N22W 5N29W 5N34W 4N46W...INTO FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 4N54W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 2N AT THE PRIME
MERIDIAN...3N6W 4N11W 5N19W 4N24W 2N28W...WITHIN 120 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE 3N31W 4N42W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N
BETWEEN 46W AND 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO...FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF TEXAS/MEXICO AND 102W. THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS
DISSIPATED. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE GULF WATERS
FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 26N BETWEEN 84W AND 91W. CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM ALREADY DISSIPATED PRECIPITATION...AND SOME
SMALLER SHOWERS...ARE IN THE GULF WATERS ELSEWHERE EAST OF 90W.
THIS RAIN IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA JUST SOUTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
FROM 19N TO 23N BETWEEN 84W AND 87W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS NORTH OF 14N
WEST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 12N75W...WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN CENTRAL AMERICA
AND 91W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N83W NEAR SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA
TO 21N86W IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IS ABOUT 400 NM WEST OF EL SALVADOR AT
THE PRESENT TIME.  A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 11N83W NEAR SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO 21N86W IN THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA JUST
SOUTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 19N TO 23N BETWEEN 84W AND 87W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
ARE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 73W AND 84W. THE COMPARATIVELY STRONGEST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS RIGHT AT THE COLOMBIA COAST BETWEEN
73W AND 74W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH STARTS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
NEAR 32N61W...AND GOES RIGHT TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 18N64W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND IN THE SURROUNDING WATERS FROM
16N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W. A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM
A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N62W TO 24N63W...SWEEPING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ISLANDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO 18N77W IN
SOUTHEASTERN JAMAICA. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 56W AND 58W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH.  A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
GOES FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 28N323W TO 14N46W.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA
EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH.

$$
MT


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